← CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
Wind AlliesTier 2
at CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 41.7% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 39.1% | -5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.8% | +19.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armored Valkyrie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |